The Madness of Forecasting
A national championship, no electricity for miles around, and a dead classmate. What happened? Forecasting failed us.
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Career Change – Is It A Risk?
“Jesse, your career change…it’s a huge risk, right?” But how do I define risk? How does that definition apply to this question? Is my career change a huge risk? Is it risky at all?
Ergodicity: The Coolest Idea You’ve Never Heard Of
Surely that’s a typo…ergodicity!? No, it’s right! Ergodicity is a powerful concept in economic theory, investing, and personal finance.
The 2021 Monkey Dartboard Investing Invitational
Let’s put dartboard investing to the test, using real money in this year-long investing experiment. Will the darts beat the experts?
Personal Finance Shortcuts: Re-train Your Money Brain
There’s no magic pill. But there are plenty of heuristic personal finance shortcuts than can simplify your journey.
Monte Carlo Simulation
From roulette wheels to hurricane paths, Monte Carlo simulations help us model random scenarios, pulling signal from the noise.
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